Casinos expect war slowdown
| 19 March 2003 |
When the bombs start dropping on Baghdad, if it comes to that, casino executives some 6,100 miles away expect to feel reverberations in the form of lost business.
"Obviously, if the country goes to war, the whole nation is going to be focused on that," said Robert Stewart, spokesman for Atlantic City's largest casino operator, Park Place Entertainment.
"I think there will be a period of time where people are watching the television and seeing what's going on. The question is, How long will that period of time last?" he said.
"A lot of that will depend on how well the war goes."
Most experts, however, believe that the so-called CNN effect will be short-lived. Robert Thompson, a pop-culture professor at Syracuse University, noted that circuses thrived during the Civil War, movies thrived during the Depression, and "The Beverly Hillbillies" and "The Andy Griffith Show" TV sitcoms thrived during the Vietnam War.
"Eventually, after two weeks, after watching the grimness of war coverage, the beck and call of amusement, including the amusement of casinos, is going to make its voice heard again," Thompson said.
He likened war in Iraq to 9-11, when casino business tailed off dramatically in the days following the attacks but gradually returned to normal.
If casinos endure a slump that stretches into weeks, employees could pay the price as casinos look to cut costs.
"We'll try to be fair to our employees and be sure they don't get hurt, as we did with 9-11," said Carlos Tolosa, Eastern Division president of Harrah's Entertainment.
During the last war in Iraq, the 1991 Gulf War, casino revenue here declined 8.3 percent in the first month, a result exacerbated by a snowstorm and a recession. Revenue grew 5 percent in February, the only full month of the war.
The results, however, were skewed by comparisons to the previous year, when Trump Taj Mahal was not yet open.
But unlike during the Gulf War, there are fears of domestic terrorism associated with the looming war. Casino bosses are keenly aware of this.
"We'll be working with our surveillance and security folks, and our employees in general, asking them to be a little more vigilant," said Sands President Tom Davis.
Tolosa said security "will be priority No. 1" at its casinos.
"We'll increase our security and be even more responsive to situations that could create some trouble for us and make sure we provide for the safety and security of our employees and guests," he said.
The terror-related insecurity, along with hikes in gasoline prices, could actually boost casino business here if leery travelers want to stay closer to home, experts said.
"If air travel is dramatically curtailed owing to a military conflict, we believe that riverboat (casino) companies and Atlantic City casinos that cater to local residents within a two-hour drive radius will outperform our other leisure segments," Merrill Lynch analyst David Anders said in a research report.
Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Marc Falcone told his clients on Tuesday that casino-stock prices could jump as the likelihood of war increases.
"If history is any guide, now may be the time to buy. While trends took a near-term hit, gaming stocks started to recover from a six-month slide and were back at pre-Gulf War levels by June 1991, despite the lingering recession. Despite some near-term fundamental pressures, we believe the stocks could outperform in anticipation of a recovery," Falcone said.
Park Place Entertainment, while being careful to avoid "inappropriate marketing" during a war, is prepared to direct its Northeast customers who might be afraid of flying to Las Vegas to its Atlantic City casinos instead, Stewart said.
"After 9-11 we took a look at he customers who had visited our properties in Las Vegas but who had never visited Atlantic City and used marketing mail to suggest that they might be able to visit our properties in Atlantic City. It proved to be a very successful campaign," Stewart said.
David Jonas, general manager of Harrah's Atlantic City, said that while he's prepared for a slowdown in business, he reminded people that there are more important things in life.
"I would suggest that everyone for the next week concentrate on something other than casino gaming," he said.
"Obviously, if the country goes to war, the whole nation is going to be focused on that," said Robert Stewart, spokesman for Atlantic City's largest casino operator, Park Place Entertainment.
"I think there will be a period of time where people are watching the television and seeing what's going on. The question is, How long will that period of time last?" he said.
"A lot of that will depend on how well the war goes."
Most experts, however, believe that the so-called CNN effect will be short-lived. Robert Thompson, a pop-culture professor at Syracuse University, noted that circuses thrived during the Civil War, movies thrived during the Depression, and "The Beverly Hillbillies" and "The Andy Griffith Show" TV sitcoms thrived during the Vietnam War.
"Eventually, after two weeks, after watching the grimness of war coverage, the beck and call of amusement, including the amusement of casinos, is going to make its voice heard again," Thompson said.
He likened war in Iraq to 9-11, when casino business tailed off dramatically in the days following the attacks but gradually returned to normal.
If casinos endure a slump that stretches into weeks, employees could pay the price as casinos look to cut costs.
"We'll try to be fair to our employees and be sure they don't get hurt, as we did with 9-11," said Carlos Tolosa, Eastern Division president of Harrah's Entertainment.
During the last war in Iraq, the 1991 Gulf War, casino revenue here declined 8.3 percent in the first month, a result exacerbated by a snowstorm and a recession. Revenue grew 5 percent in February, the only full month of the war.
The results, however, were skewed by comparisons to the previous year, when Trump Taj Mahal was not yet open.
But unlike during the Gulf War, there are fears of domestic terrorism associated with the looming war. Casino bosses are keenly aware of this.
"We'll be working with our surveillance and security folks, and our employees in general, asking them to be a little more vigilant," said Sands President Tom Davis.
Tolosa said security "will be priority No. 1" at its casinos.
"We'll increase our security and be even more responsive to situations that could create some trouble for us and make sure we provide for the safety and security of our employees and guests," he said.
The terror-related insecurity, along with hikes in gasoline prices, could actually boost casino business here if leery travelers want to stay closer to home, experts said.
"If air travel is dramatically curtailed owing to a military conflict, we believe that riverboat (casino) companies and Atlantic City casinos that cater to local residents within a two-hour drive radius will outperform our other leisure segments," Merrill Lynch analyst David Anders said in a research report.
Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Marc Falcone told his clients on Tuesday that casino-stock prices could jump as the likelihood of war increases.
"If history is any guide, now may be the time to buy. While trends took a near-term hit, gaming stocks started to recover from a six-month slide and were back at pre-Gulf War levels by June 1991, despite the lingering recession. Despite some near-term fundamental pressures, we believe the stocks could outperform in anticipation of a recovery," Falcone said.
Park Place Entertainment, while being careful to avoid "inappropriate marketing" during a war, is prepared to direct its Northeast customers who might be afraid of flying to Las Vegas to its Atlantic City casinos instead, Stewart said.
"After 9-11 we took a look at he customers who had visited our properties in Las Vegas but who had never visited Atlantic City and used marketing mail to suggest that they might be able to visit our properties in Atlantic City. It proved to be a very successful campaign," Stewart said.
David Jonas, general manager of Harrah's Atlantic City, said that while he's prepared for a slowdown in business, he reminded people that there are more important things in life.
"I would suggest that everyone for the next week concentrate on something other than casino gaming," he said.
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